A Dangerous Case of Missing Water. (Part Ten)
It’s the evening of July 15 th 2021 in the Valley of Ahr, Germany. Heavy rains are predicted and this is the fourth day of constant flood warnings issued by the German Meteorological Service. The Ahr River is equipped with a total of 8 supporting river gauges, four on the main tributary, and four on smaller feeders. The first gauge was installed in 1946, the newest in 1988. Based on modeling, a river rise of approx. 19 feet was forecast (ref 1). This would have kept water largely within the banks and town leadership did not evacuate. This decision would prove catastrophic. The water arrived shortly after midnight. It was 34 feet, not 19 feet. It was also too late to evacuate and 139 people lost their lives in this valley alone. Why was the forecast off so much? Germany had just spent tens of millions on the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). This river had 54 prior recorded flood incidents over centuries of settlement. 73 years of river gauge monitoring exis...