Water Science vs Military Science (Part Ten)

 

Photo: River Sentry Founder Ian Cunningham in a prior Naval Aviation Instructor Role.

Preventing flash flood casualties has long been the domain of hydrologists, scientists, engineers, and academics. The methods and tools vary in complication and process, but the end pursuit is the same; provide decision makers with advance warning of impending flood conditions. During daytime and in flatter topographical areas, there have been successes. At night in the mountains, the pursuit has been deadly.

River Sentry is comprised of military war planners. Our expertise is guarding threatened real estate and lives from the most lethal and unpredictable threats our adversaries might invent. Threats are studied, classified, then mitigated with technology, tactics, and procedures. The process is effective and works here. Flash Floods are easily defined as a six-parameter threat further described as an “unpredictable, unstoppable, time critical, detectable, single direction, lethal threat”.

The parameters quickly generate requirements. Lethality immediately imparts severity as failure to mitigate equals death. The threat is unstoppable. Egress/escape is the only solution. A way to affect this must be created. Unpredictability is a challenge. We know storms cause flash floods but cannot granularly determine which ones will. Time criticality requires quick action, and we must account for sleep as a biological constraint of the protected. Positively, the threat is detectable and approaches from a single direction, the nearby river.

Constraints must now be applied. Technology that has failed in previous extreme storms must be excluded. Internet, cellular, and the power grid are immediately dismissed. Time criticality discards the human decision maker in favor of fast reacting software/AI driven autonomy. The tyranny of distance must be considered as long range single lines of communication add single point failure risk.  Mass sensor deployment with overlapping communication range rings is superior. The best defense is a layered defense.

A performance standard must be established. Fire code is a good start and must be replicated in the flood plain. Sound is important but must be benchmarked and used scientifically.  The threat requires a performance level which must be identified and standardized.

Human factors must be considered. False alarms will degrade trust, and an untrusted system is worthless. We should have mercy upon the beleaguered graveyard shift public employee. It is patently unfair to place them in time critical late-night life or death decision making. We wouldn’t place the night receptionist in charge of the hotel fire alarm. Why do it here?

Instead, leave the burden of decision making to a hive of computers. They will utilize hundreds of sensors to determine pre-established thresholds to mathematically trigger the system.

If one understands this approach to threat planning, the design of the River Sentry systems in Kerr County becomes apparent. The distant remote youth camps resemble Forward Operating Bases (FOBs), each armed with their own perimeter defense and alerting systems.  The installations are comprised of multiple autonomous systems that work together as a single system and if need be, alone. Since floods move downstream, the towers send wireless threat warnings downstream providing valuable advance warnings.

Everyone in proximity to a River Sentry warning device is offered the same guarantee; a chance to wake up and escape. This is accomplished through adherence to established code and a commitment to creating these technologies where none currently exist. This is the best solution to defeating future flash flood threats.